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67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace (Read 2930 times)
frankuitaalst
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67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace
10/23/16 at 02:11:53
 
I came upon this article describing recent work of Dr. Paul Wiegert .  
 
http://mediarelations.uwo.ca/2016/10/17/western-university-astronomers-predict-p ossible-birthplace-rosetta-probed-comet-67p/
 
Amazing result .  
Did myself a quick sim for about 7000 years in the past , and to my surprise the comet's orbit changes already between 50-100 years in the past , probably due to a close encounter with Jupiter .  Really not stable .
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Tony
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Re: 67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace
Reply #1 - 11/09/16 at 23:24:28
 
Sorry for the slow reply. I didn't see your post until now. Usually I get an e-mail notification.
 
Running this comet backwards shows Jupiter gives it orbit-changing kicks in 2007 and 1958. Due to the chaos induced in the 2007 kick, I wouldn't trust that the 1958 kick actually happens. But it does show what is possible when a comet remains in a Jupiter-crossing orbit for a few decades. So Wiegert is probably correct. This comet is probably a relatively new-arrival from the Oort Cloud. Runing the simulation in either time direction will probably result in a kick back to the Oort Cloud, or a complete ejection.
 
You ran for 7000 years? You probably saw a lot of orbit changes. I'll have to let this run over night!
 
Here is a backwards-running simulation of this comet.
http://orbitsimulator.com/gravitySimulatorCloud/simulations/1478762279692_cgReve rse.html
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frankuitaalst
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Re: 67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace
Reply #2 - 11/10/16 at 12:52:01
 
Yes , I ran a sim for 7000 years . I  also created a close clone to the comet . Both orbits diverge very quicky , after some decades . The orbits become very chaotic. In the 7000 years I simulated I saw the comet wander out , sometimes wander in again , but in general wandering out, farther and farther  , crossing Saturns orbit , then  Neptunes orbit ...
The result Wiegert announces doesn't surprise me .  
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frankuitaalst
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Re: 67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace
Reply #3 - 11/11/16 at 05:57:09
 
To show what I got ....I've put the screenshots of the above sim in an animation.  
Sim runs 30.000 years back in time . Each screenshot covers 300 years .  
The animation shows the solar system from "above " , Pluto in white , Neptune in green, Jupiter in orange .  
 
The yellow orbit represents the nominal path of the comet . The white orbit is a clone .  
Orbits are very chaotic and extend far beyond Pluto from time to time, but suprisingly the perihelia stay related to Jupiters orbit (  in this sim ).  
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67P_Comet_Min_30000y_.gif
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frankuitaalst
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Re: 67P Comet - Rosetta - Birthplace
Reply #4 - 11/13/16 at 04:52:05
 
Another simulation , covering 100 000 years to the past and involving 2 clones of  67P ( in white and red ; yellow being the nominal path) is animated hereby .  
All 3 orbits have the tendency to wander out to the outer solar system . One clone (the white one ) even gets a slingshot  and is driven in an orbit of Sma 2000 AU and ecc 0.998 .  So a birthplace far beyond Pluto may be a possibility.  
No of the 3 orbits however have perihelia far from Jupiters orbit after 100 000 y.
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67P_Comet_2_Clones_100000_y.gif
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