Asteroids missing us or hitting us ...., when ...?

There are some beautiful sites on the net like the NEAR site of Nasa/JPL showing the orbits of the known asteroids .

Some of them allow the generate the ephemerides , which can be used in GravSim .

In search of a table of forecasted "close approaches" i found among others this site...

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/CloseApp.html This site seems to be updated daily ...

In the next 2 years it is known that +/- 314 of them will come close within 0.2 AU ( ca. 8 times Lunar Distance ) to the earth. The figures of this site can be exported ...

Looking at the distribution of distances ( "miss" distance) the cumulative distribution looks linear ... No known asteroid of this 314 will hit the earth

, however the line can be extrapolated to the radius of the earth , showing that one of these ( yet to be discovered ) can hit the earth in a time span of 2 years . I created an excel file for these ...but am not able to post it .

Remarkable ist the fact that often new asteroids are discovered on their way to earth , getting pretty close...