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Asteroid 2006BQ6 (Read 6718 times)
frankuitaalst
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Asteroid 2006BQ6
12/31/06 at 03:30:30
 
For reasons of checking the accurancy of the Parker I simulated the 2006BQ6 orbit , with initial conditions as in the simulation of GravitySimultor .  
In annex some graphs :
Distance from the body , as expressed in AU from Earth , as a function of time (Julian Years )  
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006BQ6-Distance.jpg
The next plot is a plot in the xy-frame , where the next closest appoaches are indicated as text ( distance in 1000-3 Au and time expressed in int days from the starting date of the simulation )
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006BQ6-Plot.jpg . The pink circle indicates the orbit of the moon around Earth  
The next more close encounter is foreseen in about 100 years , but still outside the orbit of our moon
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Tony
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #1 - 12/31/06 at 13:32:16
 
Thanks for posting those.
 
On the 2nd graph, I'm not quite sure what the data means.  The circle in the middle is the orbit of the Moon?
 
What does 1000AU 25 time 33249 mean?  Sorry, I didn't understand your description.
 
What is the time step you are taking?  The data in the upper left corner seems to suggest it is 4 days, but the spacing between the dots on the graph seems to suggest something less than this.
 
Am I interpreting the rest of the data correctly?: 16851 iterations.  It took your computer 126 hours to do the simulation, 1 iteration every 4 days, the total simulated time is 88782 days, or 243 years.
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frankuitaalst
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #2 - 12/31/06 at 18:22:34
 
Quote from Tony   on 12/31/06 at 13:32:16:
. The circle in the middle is the orbit of the Moon?

What does 1000AU 25 time 33249 mean? Sorry, I didn't understand your description.

What is the time step you are taking? The data in the upper left corner seems to suggest it is 4 days, but the spacing between the dots on the graph seems to suggest something less than this.

Am I interpreting the rest of the data correctly?: 16851 iterations. It took your computer 126 hours to do the simulation, 1 iteration every 4 days, the total simulated time is 88782 days, or 243 years.

 
The circle in the middle is indeed the orbit of the moon .  
The time step in this simulation ( Parker method ) is calculated to obtain a certain accurancy . I set the accurancy in this case up to 10 meters . The program then calculates when it has to calculate the new conditions .  
The average simtime ( the period in which the expression remains valid is about 126 hours ) . After this time a new set of formulas is calculated in order to obtain an accurancy of 10 meters at THE END of the sim. This means that the total simulation is divided into a series of sims , each accurate up to 10 meters.  
It is wonderfull to see the program slow down ( if an object is near fi) or accelerate in order to maintain its accurancy ...
This is the main difference to other integrators ...
The numbers in the plot mean : 1000AU 25 = 25*10-3 AU , and the time is the time elapsed in days since the start of the program ( start date = start date of the GravitySimulator ) .  
The intermediate dots represent the calculated path . In this case I told the program to plot 30 dots in each simulation set .  
The total CPU time for this total sim ( 250 years or so ) was about 20 minutes (not displayed here ). 12 bodies were involved , just as in the GravSim Simulation .  
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #3 - 12/31/06 at 18:55:20
 
Thanks for that.  Sorry I haven't had much time to look at this method in detail.  It looks promising.  I'm on my vacation month now and I'm not home much.  Next 2 weeks I'll be scuba diving.
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frankuitaalst
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #4 - 01/05/07 at 15:14:44
 
Last year an asteroid 2006QM111 came quite close (up to some 1000 km !!!) . See the GravSim under the download section . Wondering about the danger for the future I ran the following simulations , each starting at the same time as the GravSim . The refernced planet is always in the center of the picture (xy-frame)
1.Time forward up to >200 years ...
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006QM111Earth.JPG  
The pink circle is the orbit of the moon . It seems QM111 will not harm us ...
 
2. Time backwards for ca. 200 years :
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006QM111Earth_Reverse.JPG .  
QM111 stayed at a comfortable distance ....
The close approach last year was really a chance ...in a million .
 
Does QM111 endangers other planets as Venus or Mars , as it also crosses the orbits of this planets ?  
Fig 3 and 4 ( ran for about 80 years ) show this planets are also safe ....
 
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006QM111Mars.JPG
 
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006QM111Venus.JPG
The darker path on the side represents the orbit of earth+moon
 
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« Last Edit: 01/06/07 at 02:06:26 by frankuitaalst »  
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #5 - 01/07/07 at 09:26:05
 
More on asteroids : Smiley
According to Nasa the Asteroid 2006XG1 is the highest ranked in the hazard scale today. The closest encounter is expected to be in 2041 !  
As can be seen in the next simulation it stays at a safe distance from earth .  
The circle in the middle is the orbit of the moon .(xy-frame)  
Both simulations were run for 100 years , but with varying accurancy (10m and 100 m ) . Remarkable for the accurancy is the point at the right corner were the asteroid crosses at visually the same point .  
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006XG1-5.JPG
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2006XG1-3.JPG
The coordinates and velocities of the asteroid with respect to the sun at
[td]"Date","2006/08/29 12u 56m 28s"[/td] are :
[td]1.182946006514173E+11, -1.539925609341003E+11, -7.221312184427883E+10, 1.381468530732736E+04, 2.665188444765053E+04, 4.534128930284965E+03 [/td]
Note : the above pictures may appear "fuzzy" but is helps to use the magnifying glass ...
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #6 - 01/11/07 at 12:59:38
 
More on asteroids : This is a good one Smiley
the asteroid 2004MN4 will come close according to Nasa in 2029 april 13th .  
In annex a simulation with the P-method , starting on 29/08/06. Initial data were taken from the Ephemerides site of Nasa.  
The screenshots shows the asteriod in the xy plane , centered on Earth . The circle in the middle is the orbit of our moon .  
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/yabbfiles/Attachments/2004MN4.jpg
As can be seen the ast will come close in a few years ( maybe the occasion to tag it ?) and in 2029 will shear the earth , within 28*10-5 AU .
According to Nasa and other sites ( Wikipedia) it may hit or will hit the earth afterwards as it will be deflected ...
Good in this simulation is the fact that the date of closest approach corresponds with the date calculated by Nasa Cheesy
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« Last Edit: 01/11/07 at 23:07:27 by frankuitaalst »  
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #7 - 01/30/07 at 12:26:11
 
Off topic replies have been moved to This Thread
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frankuitaalst
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #8 - 02/08/07 at 09:38:21
 
Still under "construction" but nice to view ...
A screenshot of Apophis , approaching Earth , as seen from the MOON ...
Data were taken from Apophis.gsim , processed by GravSim , outputted and processed by an 2D viewer .  
The picture shows Apophis approaching from the left under , swinging by Earth and approaching the Moon , going to the top of the picture on 13/04/2029. Apophis' diameter was magnified by ca. 1000 to make it visible .  
The small dots are Apophis , in orbit in previous years ( sim started in 2007) .  
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ApohisseenfromMoon.jpg
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #9 - 02/11/07 at 08:56:15
 
Here's another "oldie" , the asteroid 1950da , discovered in 1950 and rediscoverd in 2000.  
From this asteroid radar pictures were taken by Arecibo ... Hereunder the link to the jpl site .  
The asteroid is really big , more than 1 km in diameter and in case of a hit , would destroy a lot on earth ...  
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/
The odds for a hit were once 1/300 . This would happen in the March 2880.... A long time from now. The possibility for a near encounter before 2880 is nearly existent , that's why it is removed from the PHA - list .  
I ran GravitySim , with the initial conditions of jpl-ephemerides service on 01/02/2007 and ran it for about 1400 years . Screenshot hereunder shows the near approaches to earth ( red line ) . Remarkable is the variation of SMA of the asteroid ( blue line ) .  The SMA of the asteroid seems to get a "shot" nearly everytime it comes close to earth , meaning that earth each times changes the orbit of 1950da by some amount . However , there is a serious dip in SMA around 650 from now ,although the astro doesn't come very close . Analysing the orbit of 1950da it seems however that it came close to Mars at that time .  The year 2880 doesn't seem to be be a tread , as the astro stays at about 0.06 AU from Earth , due to subsequent changes in its orbit ?
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Asteroid1950da.jpg
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #10 - 02/11/07 at 12:16:49
 
One of the biggest known near earth asteroids is 1999JM8 . It came close in 1999 and was observed by the Arecibo radio telescope ( radio images exist ) . It measures more than 3 km in diameter . Calculations show there is no thread within the next couple of houndred years .. Here's a link to the JPL -site depicting its orbit .  
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=1999JM8&group=all .  
However , the asteroid comes "close" to jupiter about 6 times every 100 years , but not closer then 1 AU .  
The gravity of Jupiter then tuggs on the asteroid .
In the picture hereunder a screenshot of the exported data of GravSim , showing the distance to Jupiter and the SMA of the asteroid as a function of years ( starting 2007 ) It seems that Jupiter really alters the SMA of the asteroid at each close encounter .  
The same change exists in the inclination and the eccentricity of the asteroid .
Superimposed on the graph is a screenshot of the link above , showing the orbit of 1999JM8.
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1999JM8withjpl.jpg
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Re: Asteroid 2006BQ6
Reply #11 - 02/27/07 at 22:58:15
 
I recently met the Asteroid "Kozai" on the Internet . Name should be familiar Wink
Herunder a screenshot of the simulation of the orbit , generated with Picard .  
The asteroid must be rather big ( I found 17 km on a polish site ) , is a Mars crosser and has an inclination of more than 40 . It does not come close to the Earth .  
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Asteroid_Kozai.jpg
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